Winter is Coming

The television series Game of Thrones is based on an epic fantasy series by George R.R. Martin, A Song of Ice and Fire. The series' name comes from the first book, A Game of Thrones, and its first episode is called "Winter is Coming." This is an allusion to the long "seasons" found on the world where it is set.

Anyone who has read The Fourth Turning may notice a coincidence: By way of comparison between seasons of the year and the different Turnings, that book's first chapter is called "Winter Comes Again."

If you haven't been here before, please take a look at the Introduction to Generations, the Generational Attributes and the Four Stories in order to get up to speed on how all this works, and the terms being used.

A Game of Thrones was published in 1996, a year before the fourth Turning. Martin began writing it about 1991, which was the same year that Generations was published. It might be possible that the authors influenced each other, but seems more likely that similar events inspired similar allusions.

Unlike previous assessments of known stories, this is the unusual case of a narrative that is not yet finished. The novels have a few more books to come, the series at least another season. It's also a massive ensemble of characters,  making it a daunting task to confirm the generations throughout it all.  The possibility that different regions are on different turnings would have to be considered as well: Generational cycles assume at least some communications between generations,  and in this world large areas never talk to each other. Dorne and Westeros, to name only two, could easily be in different Turnings. It may be best to start with a smaller target - something more manageable.

Even though the whole Story has not been revealed, we have clues enough on where it is going. The series title is one big one. Fire shows up many times - the sacrifices to the Lord of Light, in the secret weapon used by Tyrion at the Battle of Blackwater - but the real fire that  underlies it all, that was the source of power before the story opens,  is breathed by dragons.



Ice is seem more rarely, especially at the start when winter is coming, but not yet arrived.  It is nonetheless ubiquitous upon arrival at The Wall. It's north of that, though, that the real ice is found, in the form of the White Walkers, who dominate the ever-winter lands with power over life and death.

The Song is clearly going to lead to a battle between the two, one that will change the world, perhaps for hundreds of years. While some character arcs are already redemptive or tragic, the overall Story is clearly leading to a Heroic resolution, with teamwork and sacrifice and ultimate success. 

The conflagration that was the War of the Five Kings was sufficient to consider the events as happening during a Fourth Turning. If the story continues along the path suggested, that Fourth Turning will be continuing at least through that expected final battle between Fire and Ice.

How about the Characters themselves? For some of the major ones, the answers seem straightforward: 

• Ned Stark; the Head Sparrow: Principled and resolute - Prophets
• Cersei, Jaime, and Tyrion Lannister:  Practical, amoral, uncultured - Nomads
• Stark's children (Arya, Sansa, Robb, at least), Daenyres Targaryan: Insensitive and unreflective, selfless and overbold - Heroes

Even if this is too much making events fit into a box, and subjective in any case, the ease with the Characters fit the inferred Setting and expected Story is impressive.